Daily Stock Picks Report Archive

December 9, 2008, Tuesday Evening                                                                                                                             www.TradeStocksAmerica.com

A little fear returned and it won’t take massive selling in stocks to get the housing stocks and life insurance sector to sell off again.  It would be ideal to see an uptrend resume after another day or two of mild selling but the above sectors should continue to sell off as a general trend in the coming week or so.

Oil prices had no follow through on the upside and sold down 3.75% today.  Any long positions in the independent oil and gas stocks’ swing trade should have been sold today.

All eyes are on the bailout of the automakers.  Any delay in approval would likely be a reason for selling to occur the next few days.

Intermediate Trade Positions:   FXI, Xinhua 25 ETF dropped 4% today but is still within an uptrending pattern.  This should be a shallow and short-lived correction and could give people an opportunity to go long the next few days.   All indicators are still pointing upward for both FXI and  PTR, Petro China.

Swing Trades:    The independent oil and gas producers XTO, COG, EOG, or NBL (and many others), peaked today on that 2 day swing trade long.  Short term, it doesn’t look like much upside with this group. The housing stocks such as DHI, CTX, TOL, PHM, LEN, started to turn over today and is likely to have a downtrend for the coming several weeks. Any one of these stocks looks attractive on the short side with CTX and TOL the most potential.

The life insurance sector (HIG, PRU, MET, LNC, PFG)  gave really nice profits on intraday long and short, especially PRU after a slight drop to $29.70 on the low and rebounding up $5 or 17% to $34.7, then selling off over $3 the following several hours.  This whole group of life insurance companies should be selling off for several more days.  

The coal sector stocks (FCL, ACI, MEE, CNX) are likely to sell off in a mild manner these coming days.  This group is worth a small swing short position .

AMZN, Amazon.com peaked today at $54.48 and sold off $3.23 to close at $51.25.  This is a decent swing short to $44-$46.   JPM, JP Morgan Chase and GS also look like good swing short positions.  GS has been weaker than the whole financial stock group.  SKF, Ultrashort Financials ETF is worth a small long position (which means you are really short this sector).  SKF could easily get to $130 if financials continue to sell off the next 4-5 days.  Keep position sizes small, especially if you are new to selling short.  This allows you to have staying power with your positions and not create such high emotions for you. 

Day Traders/Intraday stock ideas:   Intraday trading pattern has changed to "no drop, and no obvious pop but just a steady climb upward."  The bullish sentiment covered over any drop and pops in the intraday chart but it is likely we see a drop and pop re-appear tomorrow morning but nothing close to the big drops we have seen in the past.  We probably will see shallower drops followed by big pops and LONG is the smart way to use this technique now.  We might see a slight sell-off tomorrow anyhow so the drop and pop could coincide well with the market.  The insurance companies should be a group to watch for short scalps tomorrow followed by long scalps but give it a lot of time before going long.  Notice how long PRU took to hit bottom at 10:42am Pacific time before bouncing 10% in the following 90 minutes.  This is an excellent group of stocks (HIG, PRU, MET, LNC, PFG) to trade tomorrow using intraday trades short and long OR swing trades short for a 2 or 3 days.

Concluding thoughts:    The market probably doesn’t sell off into a spiral nosedive but anything is possible. I’d be looking for a day or two of selling and look for any catalyst to see buying again, perhaps the auto bailout getting voted through could cause some buying again.  The old saying, trade what you see, not what you hope for is still valid.  Hold your intermediate and swing trades longer than before.

Thoughts:  Best odds only, be decisive, aggressive, mentally flexible, stay in position size, don’t overtrade and wait a little longer to buy and wait a little longer to sell.  You will find that will make you more money on your trades.  Trade what you see, not what you hope for.

Don’t trade unless the setup is there for you, then use the charts to tell you when the odds are heavily in your favor.  I recommend wide stop losses when using this technique otherwise you get stopped out frequently which is expensive, frustrating and distracts you from the bigger picture of making a successful trade.  Don’t force anything to work for you tomorrow, let the setups develop and then take advantage of that.  Be patient the next couple of days.  Stay in position sizes without letting any intraday trade represent more than 10-15% of your total account value.  As you build your account, your position size percentage should get smaller and smaller to lower your risk.

Have a great day and I’ll talk to you tomorrow. 

Mitch King

www.TradeStocksAmerica.com

Contents:  stock trading, trading strategies, stock picks, stock market education, stock market investing course and educational stock trading videos.